Geopolitical tensions around the world can generate grey zone warfare.

Grey zone warfare refers to spaces that exist between direct conflict and peace in international relations. Grey zone conflicts are characterised by the use of the threat of force to create fear and intimidation. They cause disruptions. Examples of grey zone activities include undermining oil and gas supplies, money laundering, espionage, and sabotage.

The Houthis’ Attacks

We have seen an example of grey zone warfare in the maritime sector, when the Houthis attacked ships transiting through the Red Sea. Insurers became unwilling to cover transits through the Red Sea, and therefore the ships had to look for alternative routes and face delays in shipping, which ultimately have to be passed on to customers, who pay higher freight charges.

Sabotage of Underwater Cables

Another example of acts of sabotage we have seen recently involves ships engaging in grey zone harassment by cutting communication cables to cause disruptions.

Undersea connectivity is a crucial global service, but it is also extremely vulnerable. Cutting an underwater internet cable can leave local residents without internet for several weeks.

In the same way as in the maritime sector, the aviation industry is also facing its own grey zone challenges.

Mass Seizures of Aircraft

Leasing aircraft is a key component of the global aviation industry. Not every airline owns all of its aircraft.

Around February 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we saw the imposition of sanctions by the UK, the US, and the EU against Russia.

This meant that the leasing of about 600 aircraft by US and European lessors to Russian airlines had to be terminated.

In response to the sanctions, Putin issued a decree prohibiting the return of the aircraft to the foreign owners.

The politically motivated seizures of aircraft are another example of grey zone warfare.

The Russian airlines continue to operate the aircraft in breach of the termination of the lease agreements, and the Western aircraft lessors have been unable to repossess their aircraft.

There have been legal cases between the lessors and their insurers to recover the loss of these aircraft.

There is a mega trial currently running in the UK. The amount involved is staggering. The initial estimate is USD12 billion.

Terrorist Attacks

What other threats and harm have been directed against the aviation industry?

The risk of a terrorist attack remains a concern. However, after the 9/11 attacks, the security surrounding aircraft was dramatically increased. The ability of terrorists to take action against cargo or passenger aircraft has diminished because of the widespread security measures.

Pilots have been trained, and they know how to navigate manually in case of GPS jamming or spoofing.

The industry shares information, particularly around areas of conflict, such as the Middle East or Ukraine, to minimise the risk of incidents.

Overflight Bans

Western airlines are no longer allowed to fly through Russian airspace. Russia revoked that right at the beginning of the Ukraine war.

So, Western airlines have to fly around, which severely impacts flights between Europe and Asia, whereas airlines from other parts of the world can fly anywhere they like and are not subject to the Russian ban.

Conclusion

Geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions cause grey zone threats to intensify. The challenges to the aviation industry that we have seen include terrorist attacks, mass seizures of aircraft, and overflight bans. The industry responds by increasing safety regulations. These risks trigger the industry to exponentially raise the standard of safety measures. On one hand, it is certainly positive that the industry reacts and increases its efforts to make aviation safer. On the other hand, this also represents a considerable cost to the industry, which may have to be passed down to customers.

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